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Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting (Wiley and SAS Business Series), by Charles W. Chase
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An updated new edition of the comprehensive guide to better business forecasting
Many companies still look at quantitative forecasting methods with suspicion, but a new awareness is emerging across many industries as more businesses and professionals recognize the value of integrating demand data (point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data) into the forecasting process. Demand-Driven Forecasting equips you with solutions that can sense, shape, and predict future demand using highly sophisticated methods and tools. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods to the most advanced and innovative techniques in use today, this guide explains demand-driven forecasting, offering a fundamental understanding of the quantitative methods used to sense, shape, and predict future demand within a structured process. Offering a complete overview of the latest business forecasting concepts and applications, this revised Second Edition of Demand-Driven Forecasting is the perfect guide for professionals who need to improve the accuracy of their sales forecasts.
- Completely updated to include the very latest concepts and methods in forecasting
- Includes real case studies and examples, actual data, and graphical displays and tables to illustrate how effective implementation works
- Ideal for CEOs, CFOs, CMOs, vice presidents of supply chain, vice presidents of demand forecasting and planning, directors of demand forecasting and planning, supply chain managers, demand planning managers, marketing analysts, forecasting analysts, financial managers, and any other professional who produces or contributes to forecasts
Accurate forecasting is vital to success in today's challenging business climate. Demand-Driven Forecasting offers proven and effective insight on making sure your forecasts are right on the money.
- Sales Rank: #860377 in eBooks
- Published on: 2013-07-16
- Released on: 2013-07-16
- Format: Kindle eBook
From the Inside Flap
To become demand-driven, your business needs to identify the right market signals, build demand-sensing capabilities, define demand-shaping processes, and effectively translate demand signals to create a more effective response. Doable? Now it is, with Demand-Driven Forecasting, Second Edition.
Distinctive for its attention to practical demand forecasting challenges, Demand-Driven Forecasting, Second Edition is completely updated with a detailed look at improving the forecasting process to better meet customer demands. Author and demand forecasting leader Charles Chase presents both comprehensive coverage of statistical methods as well as how to apply them in practice within a demand-driven forecasting process using actual data and examples.
Featuring new case studies and examples, Demand-Driven Forecasting, Second Edition includes the contributions of the latest theoretical developments, while presenting current empirical findings and technology advancements. The new edition features new coverage on demand-shifting, nonseasonal and seasonal ARIMA models, transfer functions, and cross-correlation function plots.
Plus, the Second Edition explores:
- Weighted combined modeling
- New product forecasting using structured judgment
- Application of additive and multiplicative Winters methods
- Using graphical methods and plots to understand statistical output
- The most recent developments in demand-driven forecasting
Essential reading for every professional responsible for forecasting and demand planning, Demand-Driven Forecasting, Second Edition provides you with proven processes, methodologies, and performance metrics you can apply immediately for significant improvement in forecast accuracy.
From the Back Cover
Praise for Demand-Driven Forecasting
"Charlie Chase is one of the top thought leaders in the business forecasting community, making him eminently qualified to write what I consider to be the definitive book on demand-driven forecasting. This Second Edition takes the reader from a review of the most basic forecasting methods, to the most advanced time-series methods, and then on to the most innovative techniques in use today."
—Lawrence "Larry" Lapide, PhD, Research Affiliate, MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics Lecturer, University of Massachusetts, Recipient of the Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning's inaugural Lifetime Achievement in Business Forecasting & Planning Award
"It is with profound pleasure that I am endorsing one of my favorite books, Demand-Driven Forecasting, by one of the sharpest minds in the field of business forecasting. Charlie Chase has created a truly holistic book, which allows a rare focus on key methodologies and real business challenges that is highly relevant for CPG companies. This Second Edition has expanded into the field of new product forecasting, a key discipline that makes or breaks forecasting success in a world of increasingly shorter product life cycles. In short: If you are looking for a book on forecasting that has it all, then you have found it. Demand-Driven Forecasting is a must-read."
—Lauge Valentin, Director of Forecasting, The LEGO Group
"Charlie Chase has delivered a text that provides forecasters at all levels with practical knowledge and the quantitative tools that will allow them to make a significant leap in modeling and predicting demand. Using plain and concise language, he integrates real-world examples with discussions of advanced statistical methods to demonstrate how to develop forecasting solutions by applying the power of analytics. Those in forecasting will benefit from the knowledge found in this book and by keeping it handy as a valuable reference."
—Glenn Keltner, PhD, Manager, Demand Planning Development, Nestle Purina PetCare Company
About the Author
CHARLES W. CHASE Jr. is the Chief Industry Consultant in SAS's Manufacturing & Supply Chain Global Practice, where he is the principal architect and strategist for delivering demand planning and forecasting solutions to improve SAS customers' supply chain efficiencies. He has more than twenty-six years of experience in the consumer packaged goods industry, and is an expert in sales forecasting, market response modeling, econometrics, and supply chain management.
Most helpful customer reviews
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
This book is a gem!
By A Customer
This is an excellent book on applied demand forecasting. As such, I am using it as a textbook in my MBA-level forecasting class. I was looking for a book that would be appropriate for my students as future managers, decision-makers and forecast analysts. There are many excellent theoretical treatments of forecasting and time series analysis. (I know because my doctoral dissertation was on forecasting.) However, these books focus solely on the statistics/econometrics and ignore important practical considerations in demand forecasting. These books would be not appropriate for my students. Similarly, there are a lot of practically-oriented forecasting books with good insights and sound advice. (I know because I have several years of industry experience.) However, many of these books lack (or assume that you already know) the basics of forecasting. So, these books would not be appropriate for my students, either. But when I came across “Demand-Driven Forecasting”, I knew it was a gem! This book gives you a solid understanding of how demand forecasting is done in practice, illustrates common problems forecasters face and explains the politics behind forecasting. Given this background, the statistical material presented in this book make so much more sense that it would otherwise. I recommend this book to any forecasting practitioner. In my opinion, this is the best introduction for a novice forecaster. But a more experienced forecaster would also find many valuable improvement ideas in this book.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Practical and Comprehensive
By Mark Quinn
I found the second edition of this book to be both practical and comprehensive. It discusses today's growing, numerous forecasting challenges and offers comprehensive insights into how to become "demand-driven" using excellent easy-to-understand examples. There are many real data examples and several that seem to be based on the author’s experience. There is emphasis on using graphical methods and plots to understand the analysis and statistical output. The author’s perspective is that demand forecasting is much more than just fitting models to historical demand data. Although explaining and understanding the past history of demand is important, it is not always adequate for improving accurately. I agree that combining data, analytics, and domain knowledge is the only formula for successful demand forecasting. The book includes the most recent developments in demand-driven forecasting process implementation.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Great book. Most forecasting books take a very statistics ...
By Robert Moreira
Great book. Most forecasting books take a very statistics and mathematics heavy approach. Mr. Chase creates the perfect balance of explaining just enough math behind forecasting, as well as, shows how forecasting is applied in the real world with real life examples. As the data driven business world becomes the norm, understanding how predictive analytics is applied is becoming more valuable than the theory of analyzing data.
See all 12 customer reviews...
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